p2p bets arent really practical because they need a channel with their counterparty, to route them we need PTLCs which is a far ways away
Agreed on that point. I wasted spent wayyy too much time thinking about how to make P2P DLCs practical. I think SuredBits has something cooking with Barrier Escrows but it's still a lot of work to get right.
you need a central market maker that is extremely capital intensive
With the approach linked above, it's not capital intensive at all. The market maker has to front the full value of the DLC (on-chain), but they're immediately paid back (off-chain) when the participants buy in via lightning. Fees can be charged to account for no-shows.
wastedspent wayyy too much time thinking about how to make P2P DLCs practical. I think SuredBits has something cooking with Barrier Escrows but it's still a lot of work to get right.