My attempt at beating the Casino/Bookmakers \ stacker news ~ideasfromtheedge

First of all, I know gambling's a mug's game

I know the house always wins

I know ultimately I'll lose whatever I put in

But I still think, there's a small edge where one could consistently win....hear me out.

My tactic involves roulette and soccer betting

First of all, roulette is weighed in the house's favour by the green 0 and 00, if you play roulette consistently, you will lose all your money end of story. END OF STORY.

But it got me thinking about odds and probability, if one were to play less, the odds of winning or losing are reduced, because if you're not playing you can't win or lose right?!

So if you took two players and one of them plays roulette for over 8hrs a day, 7 days a week, using the Martingale technique (double your bet every time you lose, until either you lose all your money, reach the table limit normally $1-2k or win your original stake)

And the other plays once a week until they win just once using Martingale.

Btw- Original stake for player 1&2 is 0.5% of their pot

Probability says, the first player will almost certainly get wiped out, due to the house edge

Player two should have a 48/48 chance of winning, still a chance of losing everything!

Example of a martingale bet is, let's say...

$0.5 and lose $1 and lose $2 and lose $4 and lose $8 and win!

Effectively you win $0.5 because you were $7.5 down at the time of winning.

This type of betting strategy can only reap rewards if you consistently play, therefore we know the house has the edge, so you will lose everything ultimately. YOU WILL LOSE.

But I was thinking about interest rates at the bank, typically you'll receive between 0-2% and lately you may find accounts offering up to 5%

So in order to 'win' let's say 12% of your betting pot per annum, while using the Martindale technique, remembering that we are gambling 0.5% of our pot on each spin, one would only gamble 24 times per year, or twice per month, or once a fortnight.

Now the soccer part enters the field...

But before I explain that, let me set a disclaimer on losses; I have 'lost/donated' $100 to test this theory, if/when I get wiped out, I won't chase my losses, I'll accept the house always wins and walk away, if one cannot walk away and tries to chase the loss, that is a very ugly road to travel down.

So, the roulette gambling may create 1% per month ($1) and one may only gamble 0.5% per month on soccer bets, typically each bet on soccer would be 0.1% so 5 bets per month

The soccer bets for my tactic are made up of a 'treble' meaning 3 outcomes must win in order to claim the full winnings, although my online bookmaker will offer a 'cashout' if the first two outcomes land successfully and the gambler can 'gamble' whether the third outcome will land or take the reduced cashout

Each outcome of the three must be at least 100-1 odds

So for example...

Outcome 1 = 100-1 Outcome 2 = 100-1 Outcome 3 = 100-1

= around 1 million to one combined

With a stake of 10c that's around $100k return

Now, obviously the odds of winning the treble are slim to zero, but when one factors in the odds of one or two outcomes landing, there are potentially some juicy cashouts to be had!

Constructing the football bets are quite fun and only spending 50c a month on football bets, one may attribute that to a frivolous gamble like the lottery and NOT GET INVOLVED WITH ROULETTE GAMBLING AT ALL!!

Worst case scenario from the soccer bets is a 10c loss, which should be supplemented from the roulette gambling.

Worst case scenario from the roulette betting is catastrophic loss of all funds, meaning walk away. WALK AWAY

Disclaimer: this is for entertainment purposes only and I would not recommend anybody gambles FULL STOP.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 29 Jan

Do you know the saying "Don't bring a knife to a gun fight"?

Imagine hearing someone answer "I'll do it anyway"

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @03479d0ee6 29 Jan

I thought of something like this at one time for soccer bets but never tried. Regarding the roulette, with only one zero, one system that used to work ok for me was tracking streaks, let's say 1st Dozen not hitting for 12 spins, in this case odds might be in your favor, so you can do a short martingale betting on 1st or if you want to be more cautious bet on 1st and 2nd for eg. If you win walk out or at least hold you initial money.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cleaningup12 OP 29 Jan

Yes, I denominated in dollars and added the 00 because I would assume most SN'ers are from 🇺🇸, not forgetting the vast coverage of the globe with stackers from Canada UK Europe Asia Africa and beyond

You're right I've paper traded the roulette wheel many times and I've seen 17 reds in a row, so if you stick rigidly to Martingale, One will LOSE EVERYTHING

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 29 Jan

I don't know if this will interest you, but I wrote a post about how to come out ahead on sports betting at freebitcoin. They use an uncommon odds mechanism and it offers better than fair odds to early wagers.

I've also made use of the exponentially escalating wager strategy that you describe. As long as you're patient and willing to mostly just make very small gains, it's ok. If you chase returns though, it leads to complete ruin very quickly.

159 sats \ 0 replies \ @cleaningup12 OP 29 Jan

Thanks, I'll peruse with interest 🙂

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @_b_o_n_e_s_ 29 Jan

I have known two gambling addicts who have ruined their life. The one addicted to slot machines at least could own up to it, and was able to be honest about their addiction with their family, and recognise it was a problem that had ruined their life and severely impacted their family. The roulette player is still convinced they're one small tweak away from having the perfect system. I wish you all the best luck.