As a first step to this Bitwise already published their BTC address for their holdings
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1750225520434856078?s=20
Now if there is a way where there is a Anonymous Unique transaction ID like a blockchain transaction hash ( but not necessarily decentralised ) itself which is published in a website against each of the buyer transactions
So that the holders can ensure that their unique transactions add up to the total custody amount for that ETF
So the following question is answered
- How is anyone sure that the ETF issuer collects the money and buy the bitcoins . What if like in Fractional Reserve they collect the money but dont buy the bitcoin
- If an ETF like bitwise can bring transparency here - then they may attract more investors
https://m.stacker.news/13699
I think this one is more visual…
Once again you could be right, but i think the etf issuers and wall street will find a way to gather more than 10%… which is fine because it will add to btc scarcity , and over time, people will sell etf for different reasons ( education, fear of loosing during big corrections, withdeaw for retirement ,…)
I don t think the etf will « lock » the btc forever and so each pullback will release btc in exchanges for educated individuals to stack up and buy the dips…
From individuals its very difficult for ETF to aquire
as the price goes up with the ETF buying
the individuals will sell only little by little if at all they sell
This is reverse process of IPO
Where majority of the equity is already distriubuted across multiple individuals who wouldnt all at once take decision to sell
It might take years to make individuals sell.
I guess only future will tell. In that individuals, you also have all the btc that traders, swingers and day trader speculate with… and that, i wonder how much that represent… when you see the volume each big liquidation we had a couple weeks ago brought, you would assume it’s a massive amount of btc. Also in companies, you have the mining companies that have to sell btc to cover their expenses… and will always have to cover… so obviously as price rise that will tend to decrease but shouldn t be forgotten in the equation
mining is just around 900 bitcoin per day
ETF buying as of now is 10000 plus per day
eventually i think the price of bitcoin as it shoots higher to the order of millions ETFs wouldnt be able to afford to buy all the mined bitcoins even per day reducing the volumes to few hundred BTC aquired each day spending billions each day
its a slow transition from the 1000 trillion dollar based economy into 21 million bitcoins + Gold + Silver + AMPL becoming the liquidity to deal with the 1000 trillion dollar tokenised securities
https://bit.ly/dollarhyperinflation - please read
Trying to look at ampleforth price line since inception in 2021. Price significantly dropped to an all time low last june and recovered a bit since then.
So let me ask you a question ( a real one since i am interested in understading the concept )
If Ampl is an algorythmic stablecoin, that aims at targeting 2019 USD value, knowing the USD value decreased since 2019, ampl price being traded on exchanges follows the simple rules of supply and demand because not backed or pegged to usd. Since ampl prices are going down, from my understanding, ampl algorythm corrects that decorrelated value from 2019 usd value by increasing the amount of ampl you got in your wallet. Is it correct?
That s where i am unsure if my undeestanding is correct because i have a hard time figuring my wallet not having the same amount of ampl everytime i would check without making any transaction… so i mist be missing something
Thank you.
Current Value of 2019 USD = approx 1.17 USD - U can see this in the AMPL Dashboard in the website.
Now if AMPLE is trading at less than 5% of the 1.17 USD ( Less than ~ 1.11 ) then that means the total supply of ample has to be decreased globally to so that the price comes up to reach 1.17
So rebasing happens and the total supply goes down. This is called negative rebasing
As the total global supply of AMPL goes down the total supply of AMPL in ur wallet also goes down.
Now this pushes the demand higher and the price might go higher the next day. If the demand goes higher and higher there may be people buying ample for 1.3 USD or 1.5 USD if demand keep staying there. Now every day the global supply is increase based on the increasing demand to bring down the price to 1.17 USD which is the target. Sometimes the price keep staying above 1.17 for a long while indicating higher demand and so the supply globally and in ur wallet keeps on growing till the total supply increase to a level that the price comes down to tend to 1.17 USD
So this effectively negates the cantillon effect when Fiat currency issue happens. Similar to Fiat currency AMPL also keeps issuing more and more supply. but the increased supply comes into the account distributed across all the previous holders.
@Anonymous_Hodler
Price in June 2023 was around $15000. Bitcoin all time low was below $0.000001. Sigh.
I am talking ampleforth @harrr
Ouch, thanks for pointing that out :-D
Bust finished reading that long and really highly interesting article, well done @cryptofolyo
I would mention an inexactitude when you mentionned vanguard filing for btc etf.
I am glad i finally found someone that , like me, think precious meral are worth investing in even thiugh prices are highly manipulated by wall street.
Regarding ampleforth… never heard of it so far. Will definitly dig the topic, contenders, possible copycatsbut it sounds like a possible good portfolio diversification idea to me…
Thank you so much for sharing that article my friend, highly recommended!
Portfolio diversification with Silver and Gold is very important i think. Then if in some point in future bitcoin private keys gets compromised because of some previously unknown tech like quantum computing or something similar.
What happens is the value of gold and silver likely to rise tremendously.
So if u have a portfolio of 50% in metals and 50% in cryptos then if crypto goes to zero then metals are likely to grow by 3 or 4 times and ur portfolio still grows. So u dont have to be worried about a main chain hack on bitcoin or 51% attack or any sort of that kind of stuff.
Thank you so much
First time someone is appreciating my ideas here on stacker.news
Everything including bitcoin can be manipulated. Not limited to Gold and TradFi
Manipulation in bitcoin may be limited becuase the blockchain is public and transparent. But as ETF comes , power to dictate the price of Bitcoin also comes with that. Look at the way the GBTC is filing for covered calls.
But i think bitcoin wont be that easy. Covered calls on a volatile asset like bitcoin is height of stupidity i think Even for GBTC. May be they would start with covered calls for 50000 or 100000 bitcoins.
Your post does a good job of explaining why you shouldn't buy an ETF if you can buy the real thing.
yes.
always buy the real thing if you can
but lot of lazy people will buy ETF - i think ETF total will never exceed 10% of total supply
By the time ETF supply goes nearby 10% the price of BTC would be in multiple millions and further increase in percentage will be difficult for everyone as price moves northwards.
Never exceed 10% ? So you think the few ETF who will survive the first couple years ( it s probably not going to be more than 4 or 5 being given the competition ) won’t gather more than roughly 2M BTC ?
GBTC just by itself before the launch of the ETF had more than 650k BTC. So already 1/3 of the 2M when the financial advisers world get pressured, acquire the lingo and get incentives in directing clients towards ETF, capital will probably flow into BTC ETF and also, think about all these IRAers who invest a piece of each of their paychecks every month… for years and years to come. You might be right but i think 10% is a little conservative.
https://m.stacker.news/13698
Lets see
Who is holding most of the bitcoins?Who is holding most of the bitcoins?
1.1 Million Satoshi - I dont think he will sell it to ETF
Binance 6,43546 - May be Binance is a potential seller to ETFs
Grayscale ~ 537000 - May be they will keep selling to ETFs
US govt - 2007189 - May be potential seller to ETFs
mt GOX - 200000 - Will be divided to original holders who are all likely to hold
China Govt - 194000 - May be going into Chines ETFs
Microstrategy - 152800 - Surely not for sale
Block.One - 140000 - Not likely for sale, but cant say
So add up all this 1.85 million - Maybe - max to max
2.1 million for 10%
By the time 1.85 million is accumulated the price can shoot out to tens of hundreds of million per bitcoin