I think there is a lot of rebalancing going on in the ln network. If the om chain fees are high, lesser channels get opened and lesser rebalance is needed. This is what I observed as well but of course cannot prove.

megaptera

lightning

I have just raised the fees significantly on some channels

C_Otto

I look forward to hearing your result.

"Low fee channel avoidance" is a term I have never heard before and I agree with you it seems counter-intuitive.

I have personally seen a significant drop in forwards on my node over the past couple months.  Which seem odd with on chain fees being significant.  I have in-turn lowered the fee recently and now forwarding has become none existence. 

I might have to consider "Low fee channel avoidance" an actual dynamic.