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11 sats \ 9 replies \ @cleaningup12 10 Jan \ on: Why I'm Bullish 1: Bitcoin is a Hurricane bitcoin
Do you believe that Bitcoin or Blockchain technology generally has been suppressed? We are 15 years to the day of hal's tweet and worldwide adoption is nowhere to be seen
Mr and Mrs Jones still see it as a scam
Obviously there are players with a lot to lose if a new kid on the block takes their candy
One example of a new technological invention which seems to not threaten the boys club is AI
AI seems to have erupted recently and been allowed to permeate every area of our lives, given a free pass by the powers that be
Or maybe we're too early as you say!
We are 15 years to the day of hal's tweet and worldwide adoption is nowhere to be seen
Gonna push back on this. Are you living under a rock? Have you seen a chart lately. Bitcoin adoption has been growing for many years. I think most of us just have VERY high time preference. Gradually then suddenly is a great way to describe my outlook for bitcoin.
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I often compare the timeline of bitcoin adoption with the timeline of internet adoption.
The history of the Internet started in the 80s with ARPAnet.
15 years after that, the dotcom bubble didn't even pop yet.
We're that early.
I think most of us just have VERY high time preference.
100% agree
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I do believe they have tried to suppress it as much as they can but suppressing an idea is extremely difficult to do long term.
Also, people often wildly underestimate how long it takes for adoption curves play out, especially those that require network effects.
Electricity, Telephones and Automobiles all had roughly 1% adoption for the first 20 years before exploding upwards over the next few decades after their invention. Now it's difficult to imagine what life was even like without those things.
I mean just think about that... 2 decades for the first 1% adoption followed by 4 decades to get to 90% adoption.
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AI is an evolution not a revolution. We are in another hype cycle for AI.
Bitcoin is FAR more impactful to humanity than ChatGPT. What people are calling AI is really computers and algos. It is going to make a massive impact but it isn't even close to Bitcoin IMO.
"Blockchain" is just people taking a part of bitcoin and breaking what makes bitcoin valuable to humanity. Blockchain on its own is stupid. For most use cases it is a solution looking for a problem. In the context of a proof of work network of miners it changes everything.
I think world wide adoption could take 100 years or maybe much less. Very hard to say. I've looked at history of the Internet and it is wild how long it took for people to get it. It is my belief that we are still in the infancy stage of the Internet.
I try to think about bitcoin like this. Imagine if a new element was discovered. Something like gold. It never existed before. It would take time for the world to really get it. Most would never get it. I don't think most people understand why gold is valuable beyond people value it. So we are back to my point. Those that can't or won't get it will be the followers.
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I agree with you, I'm not disagreeing, it's just that with the information age and the Internet providing the rails for any new train to roll into town
The speed of adoption could be much faster except for certain players derailing anything they see as a threat.
We as humans realise that the only way to get global concensus on any topic is co-operation
But how much of our 8b population is ready to make a new decision on the future of humanity and how many would prefer to have their daily feed fed to them by a centralised trough of comfort where they don't need to take responsibility for the outcome
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You overestimate the power of the suits and underestimate the stupidity of the masses.
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Yes I agree,
Case in point:
UK Post Office scandal unravelling hour by hour
20 years since the beginning of sub post masters being accused of stealing money
They were totally wholly innocent and to avoid going to prison, they admitted to crimes they didn't commit
Some lost their entire net worth
houses sold to pay fines never to be seen again
Marriages lost forever
Suicides!
Treated unbelievably despicably by the suits,
lied to, evidence covered up.
The victims were calling this out for years but nothing happened until centralised media crystallised the issue and gradually then suddenly the prime minister stands up in Parliament today and effectively pardons all 800 victims
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The other aspect of this is that the tools are being developed. I don't think the ecosystem is ready for world wide adoption. I don't think it will happen all at once though. The only way things like Lightning are going to improve is if adoption pushes them to improve.
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