Been thinking about this lately and discovered I'm not alone in thinking this. For a long time MSTR has been a proxy stock of bitcoin. I suspect as people prepare for the ETF and if the ETF are approved that many stocks will be sold and converted to the ETFs. But, in the longer term of 6-12 months will MSTR continue to drop?
What do you think?
Probably a bit. I suspect it will trade at a discount to its bitcoin holdings considering the debt it holds but will rise in value with the bitcoin price and still outperform the market.
reply
It has dropped over the past few days and I suspect the ETF is why.
reply
Yeah. Makes sense. I haven't owned MSTR in awhile but if it did trade at a juicy discount to the bitcoin holdings I would pick some up and ride it through the bull because it might catch a bid as a levered bitcoin play if we have another fomo season.
reply
Some things MSTR has going for it compare to the ETF:
  • MSTR can dilute the stock and/or take on debt to buy more bitcoin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0kuVPw8qM0
  • There is not a yearly expense fee for MSTR like with the ETF.
  • A Figure Head (Saylor) that is more likeable from a BTC stand point then a Wall Street Banker.
reply
Good analysis
reply
I intend to hold my MSTR until it becomes worth $0. Just for the story. Bought in 2020. The tale will go something like this "....and in the end, there truly was no second best. The End."
reply
I am in the same boat. I bought a lot of MSTR in 2022 when it was below 200
reply
I'm no expert, but Fred Kreuger agrees MicroStrategy will take a hit post ETF. He spoke about it recently on TFTC. He dies think it will still do well in the long run. Me? I wouldn't buy the ETF or microstrategy
reply
Yeah, I actually listened to that appearance. I like getting varied opinions. Fred has a very different view than myself, Marty, and what you have stated.
I tend to land near you. I do think if you have money locked up in retirement accounts these might be better options vs many stocks and ETFs.
reply
Fred has an institutional bias because of his career and background. MSTR has outperformed ETF since they launched and I am aware MSTR is down to 1200 after being near 2000. I have MSTR in my Roth IRA.
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 9 Jan
Its possible
Might be interesting to look at fees charged for the ETF, then fees for holding MSTR.
reply
No fees for MSTR
reply