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Who would have ever thought that the centralized control of demographics or the all-important real estate market would one day become a disadvantage when all this dream building bursts.
As little credit as I like to give Krugman, he had an article back in the 90's about why Japan wasn't going to overtake the US economically and it was largely applicable to China today (at least according to my vague memory of it).
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I sometimes wonder how much of the financial media is simply projection to telegraph a diversion of investment. Not to say that projections have no substantial effect. I'm sure there is substance.
I suppose it might be easy for The Krug to recline in his leather chair and proclaim that U.S dominance would go unchallenged over the next few decades. Amateur economists tend to make these very safe predictions, yet seldom stake reputation.
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There was actually a time when Krugman was a real economist, rather than the partisan shill he has become.
The incentives for the financial press and brokers can be pretty perverse. If they have assets they want to get out of, it benefits them to hype those up. Same for downplaying assets they want to buy. Some of that gets fixed with reputation costs, but not all of it.
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I remember this guy (maybe I am wrong like my wife says it's the norm) as a Keynesian.... so he was a preacher (making some Friday fun here).
China to me has become totally ininvestible as of late. And it's going to get worse
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I've long said that we're on the dumbest timeline.
He started out as a trade theorist, before becoming a partisan macro pundit. Modern trade theory isn't exactly Austrian, but it also generally avoids much of the mainstream macro stuff.
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640 sats \ 2 replies \ @xz 5 Jan 2024
MMT, as I recall, is along the lines of, you don't need supply and demand when you can pull levers to stimulate growth through credit expansion. Growth becomes the ultimate pursuit. Growth at all costs. I'm way out of my depth when entering into the econ arena, so it's probably a gross simplification.
Interesting what you said about the way brokers operate. I wonder whether the fintech brokers did anything more significant other than luring in a greater swathe of the public to lose their shorts. I remember there was the the Reddit subs causing problems for the more institutional broker class, but like everything that's not self-custodial, the rules get changed.
Seems the growth model is the dumbest of timelines. You get economies on steroids, undercutting, channel-stuffing and dumping low quality everything and pricing out local markets. Not that I'm against market efficiencies offered by technological innovation. Just in reality, I don't get Krugman's defense of MMT.
447 sats \ 1 reply \ @xz 5 Jan 2024
If they have assets they want to get out of
Interesting. For some reason, I tend to forget about that. Guess it's my lack of trading acumen.
Same for downplaying assets they want to buy
That line, when the tide goes out, you see who's not not wearing their shorts, or something similar, stays in my mind.
Fair enough for Krugman. I trust you know more about his origins than I.
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The first point is a problem middle class people often have with brokers. Brokers prioritize their wealthy clients, so when they advise them to sell off some stock, the easiest group to sell it to is their poorer clients.
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Agree! All media, including financial, is broken as the incentives are askew
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How do you think that gets fixed (if it can be)?
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You know the answer... Bitcoin fixes incentives!
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Those with a higher share of free market economy will will the per capita race long term
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