222 sats \ 3 replies \ @orthwyrm 2 Jan \ on: What are your predictions for 2024? oracle
Elaborating on my 2024 predictions I pulled out my ass.
- BTC hits $100k.
Self-explanatory due to a combination of probable tailwinds: ETFs, halving, rate cuts. No, it's never priced in.
- Attempts to stop BRC-20, Stamps, etc. will be fruitless.
Incentives > Virtue signalling on Twitter, sorry puritans. Filtering this stuff out devolves into a cat-and-mouse game, and the degens have more incentive to shitcoin than you do to stop them.
- Public LN capacity will not grow significantly.
There's not much demand for Bitcoin as a payment network, which is part of the reason why blocks are filled with shitcoining. Bitcoin has to mature a lot as a SoV before the market starts demanding it as a MoE.
- We will see an extended period where blocks carry +10 BTC fees.
We already got +6 BTC fees last year and retail still thinks Bitcoin is dead. This could get absurd in a bullmarket, please please please consolidate UTXOs while you can.
- Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.
NOSTR and clients make many compromises to remain censorship-resistant and permissionless, but this currently isn't a big problem for the centralised platforms so the advantage is lost. Not seeing the demand.
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