It seems like the chances of this decrease if companies like Coinbase (and other institutional interests) continue to grow. But Coinbase won't grow if industry regulations keep coming. The whole industry is speculating on the freedom to transact on the internet and stifling that stifles the industry. I think they've already done enough to keep bitcoin dormant in the US and I don't think they'll need to do anything as drastic as this thread suggests to prevent transacting.

I already expect bitcoin to be a grey market asset for the average US citizen over the next few decades. They'll continue to make it so impractical to use legally that it'll mostly be a store of value for privileged folk.

If Bitcoin begins to seriously compete with government bonds and the US government is not prepared, however, I think the probability of this is closer to 100% than 25%. I can imagine us going to war with a country that's pro-bitcoin where every US bitcoin exchange, person, and company becomes an enemy sympathizer. We'll have an Orange Scare.