It has been strung along longer than any of us would have expected, and they have tricks up their sleeve to keep it going as long as political will doesnt turn. There is a systemic instability though, the numbers get more extreme with every turn, where the turns get more and more frequent. I think its reasonable to extrapolate out and say the next time the money printer starts, maybe its a 50% haircut for savers, maybe the next is 80%. There is no mechanism for reducing items like the national debt, and even under full yield curve control there is only so much they can do to keep rates down (evidence japan), meanwhile politicians follow their incentives to spend more. I see no way out of this cage, its a falling wedge where the top line is the collapse of investor confidence (double/tripple digit inflation and interest rates) and the botttom line is default.
It's been a surprise to me also just how long this has been going. As other posters have pointed out, there is plenty of evidence it's all going badly wrong for those prepared to see it. Ultimately, maths wins. But I just don't see a default in the true sense for the US, Japan, UK, Euro-zone. Regardless of inflation, they will just hit the button and "print" more money. There are numerous schemes already in place to manipulate liquidity and solvency in the financial system (see Lynn Alden recently on investment banks arbitraging the Fed). So maybe talk of a default is a distraction. We should be more concerned at what policy steps will be taken to avoid default?! Obvs it's all speculation at this stage. All pov are valid.
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