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What is your exact definition of "seeing 1k sat/vB"?
Because if we're talking about max fee rate in a block, that already happened.
You mean high priority fee on mempool.space > 1k sat/vB? But that is also a wonky definition since it's hard to proof. And mempools are unique per node.
I think defining block parameters is a good way to bet on mempool stuff. For example, we could say: "Will we see a block with a 1k sat/vB median fee rate within the next 4 years?"
Hmm yes, good points.
It might be better expressed as total fees for a block (for example > 10 BTC), and you'd have to do it across some span of time in case there's an odd software bug (I think recently someone accidently set a +90 BTC fee).
Perhaps something like this: Within the next 4 years, there will be an 8 hour period where every block mined will have +10 BTC fee revenue.
Let's say within the next 4 years. Could be an interesting bet @ekzyis (I vote yes)