- The book, Diamond Age, set mostly in China in the near-term future, posits that while nation-states still exist, they’ve been overwhelmed in importance by the formation of phyles. Phyles are groups of people who are bound together by whatever is important to them. Maybe it will be their race, religion, or culture. Maybe their occupation or hobby.
- Technology has always been the friend of freedom and the common man. Sure, the powers of suppression usually get first access to new technologies, always try to monopolize them, and use them to keep the “masses” under control. But in the end the cat always gets out of the bag. The common man always gets hold of new technologies.
- Even though the State is using an intimidating variety of technologies to keep its subjects under control, technology is evolving much faster and spreading much more broadly, to the benefit of people in general. The end of the State will, I suspect, be precipitated by the Nanotech Revolution. In the years to come, nanotech will, in many ways, be an analog of gunpowder. But thousands of times more potent.
- People will increasingly realize the State isn’t a cornucopia that can solve their problems but is, in fact, the main cause of their problems. They’ll start withdrawing loyalty from it. Economic collapse doesn’t mean the world is going to come to an end; it just means there’s going to be a major change in who owns what and how things are produced and consumed.
- Meanwhile, governments of the world are increasingly clamping down on the Net, recognizing it for the subversive medium that it is, seeing that it’s unmocking their game.
- Military events will play a significant part in the sea change—just as they did during the agricultural and industrial revolutions. The attack won’t come from Russia, which is on its way to demographic, economic, and political collapse anyway. Or from China, who know they don’t need a military confrontation when it’s just a matter of time before they win through economics and demographics.
- An open-source guerrilla war (to use computer jargon) is a new thing and much worse from the nation-state’s point of view. For one thing, it’s almost impossible to win. The defeat is going to occur, in part, because it’s going to accelerate the ongoing bankruptcy of the US. The US is also going to be soundly defeated on a strictly military level. A nation-state can no more win against phyles than tribes could win against kingdoms.
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100 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 14 Dec 2023
Good summary, v thought-provoking. I haven't read Diamond Age in a million years, may be worth a revisit with more educated eyes.
I'm not an expert on this, but my sense is that China's demography portends bad things for them; and their economic situation is also not all roses.
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228 sats \ 1 reply \ @davidw OP 14 Dec 2023
Agree. It brought a lot of what I’m seeing into context. I think Doug is really one of the greatest minds out there right now.
I think his argument that the U.S. has more enemies than China though is spot-on.
I love how he merges 2 if not more of my favourite books, Diamond Age and The Sovereign Individual. I don’t believe he’s even read the latter (wasn’t a fan of one of the authors) but it’s mighty close to the mark.
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 14 Dec 2023
I love this stuff so much -- would be so fun to do all this thinking and scheming and macro-analysis as a job. Or at least an enduring side gig.
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