I strongly believe that an ETF (even if a popular product) is no indicator of Bitcoin adoption, strictly because:
  1. It goes against self custody a. Dollars were backed by gold until redemptions from other countries started to pile in. b. gld and slv (popular metals ETFs) already have this problem with "paper gold" and "paper silver" which is that the ETF is not fully backed.
  2. It plays no part in the purpose of Bitcoin. a. "The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible." -Satoshi Nakamoto b. Bitcoin's usefulness is as a savings account which can be used to transact anywhere in the world. An ETF is confined to the exchange it is traded on.
It is for these reasons that I strongly believe that a push for an ETF is working backwards from the progress we've made so far. Stop shilling for an ETF, and start working on small business partnerships and community development.
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I understand your argument. As an old gold bug who watched "paper gold" be manipulated by world governments to promote their fiat, I had the same fear. However, I have spoken to very smart bitcoiners who think a spot etf would be beneficial to bitcoin. They reason that it would increase institutional investment, and they don't believe "paper bitcoin" is a risk because, unlike gold, the supply is not controlled by any government. I go back and forth on this myself.
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More connections between that classical finance world and Bitcoin are not good - they might increase the correlation when we actually want more stability (compare to goods and services, not fiat currency).
On the other hand it could increase liquidity and stabilize price (compare to goods and services, not fiat currency) in theory - but I doubt that Investors would use it in this way, unfortunately.
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feels like this is a bigger deal than most people realize. guess we’ll find out in july.
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