111 sats \ 4 replies \ @elvismercury 6 Dec 2023 \ on: Those Bitcoin Fees! bitcoin
I wonder how the dynamics of {fees, ordinals, lightning, bull run} will play out. Not clear to me we're in a bull run or if this is slapping at the water trying to front-run ETF. But one day we will be, and the question stands.
A story I can imagine: bull run gets public attention back on btc, ordinals activity pick up in frantic attempt to exploit that energy, fees skyrocket even more, the narrative around btc being usable via L2 starts to choke off, investor interest curtailed, bull run premature end.
that seems plausible to me. I think that's why ordinals are so hot right now, trying to front-run the next FOMO stage. I'm not worried about lightning not working entirely, but high base-chain fees will reduce the decentralization of it...
Also, the fact that we have been in a longer than 2 week stage of at least 10 sat/vB being purged from the mempool means all those lightning channels that have to be closed with higher fees have to be managed carefully--something the new generation of node operators are going to have a hard time with.
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I can never tell where the transition from blessing to curse is. If the run is curtailed, energy dissipates, maybe the eye of Sauron darts elsewhere for one more cycle, and builders go ham on LN / L2 work for four more years while price languishes or craters, and a zillion btc obituaries get written.
Is that better or worse? Beats me.
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I don't remember who said it--maybe a lot of people at this point--but even though we all want the future to happen now, it would be catastrophic/apocalyptic if the world switched to a bitcoin standard overnight as it would mean that everything else hyperbitcoinized and collapsed super fast. So I think slow is much better. Every bitcoin obituary is a slow breath.
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Haha, I said it, for one, but I am assuredly not the one you're quoting.
And anyway, since I agree with that sentiment, I guess the "throttling outcome" is okay by me.
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