Sorry, my internet cut out so I wasn't able to edit my post in time to also respond to your question at the end:
Thoughts?
Don't have much time to respond in a very productive way, only time to post meme inspiration, lol, sorry but I'll try my best:
Your idea is indeed good. It also sounds very similar to what @Undisciplined and me discussed in the past :)
My initial idea was to create PMs on nostr so I created a draft PR, then I realized maybe SN would be a good idea, and then I realized this is going to be so involved, it makes sense to create a completely separate project out of this - at least for now.
My hope is that delphi.market will give us invaluable lessons about how to create prediction markets that we might integrate into a prediction market post type on SN some day.