We talked about this a little bit on this post.
Argh, I hate when I repeat myself. Although I guess it's a hazard of everything being connected to everything. Good call-out.
I'd wager governments will make every attempt to remove lawful private use of bitcoin. Bitcoin's weak privacy will make those attempts more likely to succeed too.
I recently stumbled on Cory Klippsten's framing: the race to prevent the war [1]. I think you're right, unfortunately; I'm trying to think of any elements of the race that could preclude it other than simple raw adoption.
[1] Looks like it's been linked on SN before (here and here) though discussion was minimal. Maybe worth another post sometime...