231 sats \ 1 reply \ @davidw 30 Nov 2023 \ parent \ on: Cycles and inevitability bitcoin
Exactly. In time terms, we’re probably looking at 4 year cycles within a 16 year cycle, within a ~80 year cycle. But as we layer technologies on top of one another, the cycles for new technologies arguably get shorter in length.
Perhaps previously those would have been 8 year cycles within a 32 year cycle (for example: for gold that’s likely more accurate).
And in the future we’ll have adoption cycles that look like yearly cycles within a 4 year macro cycle.
In some ways I don’t think we are prepared for the pace of innovation to come in the future. Either we go back to cavemen living in the wilderness and are set back a century…or we start operating and innovating at a new level of productivity. A step-change. It’s only natural in that latter scenario for us to draw the conclusion that cycles get compressed if productivity gains also do drastically.
It's interesting to think about decreasing micro cycle times by the resources that are available.
In 2010 there were certain resources, certain ideas dominate the narrative; certain amount of ambient flow of discussion is happening. In 2023 all of these are profoundly different -- it's one thing to assemble your understanding from bitcointalk, it's another to hear it being discussed publicly, as part of his platform, by a Presidential candidate. The elements of btc understanding start with very different intellectual and cultural capital formations.
This evolution in the ideaspace seems super important. I bet it radically changes the aspects of the micro-cycles within a single person.
reply