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177 sats \ 12 comments \ @Undisciplined 27 Nov 2023 meta

It could have been a great week had the Bills taken care of business. It was, however, a good trial run for my new betting strategy, Risk Balanced Odds Arbitrage (RBOA). Shoutout @grayruby for the name.

The gist is that if you get bets in early at freebitcoin, they offer slightly better than fair odds. However, they don't use a fixed odds system so there's no way to guarantee coming out ahead, but I use the Vegas odds to inform how much to bet on each side.

The odds always fluctuate pretty wildly, but as of now here's who RBOA has me rooting for in this week's NFL games:

Cowboys
Falcons
Lions
49ers (surprisingly favored in Philly)
Chiefs
Bengals
Broncos
Rams

Btw, someone already put a bunch down on the Jags, so there are great odds if you think the Bengals have any chance at all.

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241 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

I only won 3 games this week but had good odds winning with Packers and Jags so it made my week even though I lost more than I won. Opposite of last week where I won more than I lost but I was down because it was all low odds games I won. So I think to be successful you either need to win 5/7 games or have a dog come in for you.

50 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

Packers and Jags were the only two that went my way, too. It was slightly more than enough to cover.

I still can't quite believe how inept the Saints are. My dad and I are fascinated by how bad Carr's teams perform in the redzone, because when you track the plays individually it almost never seems like his fault, but the numbers are pretty clear that it is him somehow.

241 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

You bet against the 49ers?

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

I bet on both sides of every game. That's the whole point of the strategy that you named. The issue is just that I would have made more if the 49ers had lost.

241 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

I know but still how dare you.

Some great odds right now. I got really good odds for Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

To be fair, I would have done even better had I just bet on the niners, so maybe RBOA needs a caveat for them.

241 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

I actually had a positive week. I am still down around 4500 sats from when we started this degeneration but things are looking up.

I was surprised that the 49ers were favoured as well. I think some of the Eagles 10-1 is a bit of luck though. They really should have lost the last 3 weeks. Hurts isn't playing as well as last year and neither is their D. I think they are a really good team that finds ways to win. That's dangerous in the playoffs. Good test for the 49ers. They still haven't proven they can win a game that's within 10 points.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

I definitely think the 49ers are the better team, but it's a west to east game, which tend to be difficult.

It's interesting that Philly doesn't seem to be playing great. I'm reminded of a thought experiment someone was doing about how valuable a player would be who only ever got one yard rushing. After thinking about it for a bit, the conclusion was that a player who could guarantee you one yard would be the most valuable player in the league and it wouldn't even be close. That's basically what the Tush Push is. I think the Eagles might just be a good team plus an unbelievably powerful cheat code.

241 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

It's close. I don't think it was intentional but a Bills player jumped offside, ran over kelce and bumped Hurts trying to defend a tush push that was around midfield and I was thinking why not do that every time except do it with 3 players instead of one. Maybe you don't do it every time but if they are in their own territory or definitely at the goal line where the penalty is just half a yard and they are gonna score anyways. I am not saying you try to hurt someone but they have a play where they can use leverage and the D can't so the only way to mitigate that is to perfectly time the snap but the O knows the snap count not the D so you are well within your rights to try to time the snap, be wrong and run over guys a couple times. Again not to try and hurt someone but if their All pro C and their pro bowl QB get run over a couple times maybe they will reconsider.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

There's value in making players think twice about going to your part of the field. When teams try sneaks on the Raiders, Maxx usually leaps the pile and lands right on the QB's back. How many times do you want to subject your franchise QB to that? On the other hand, Hurts is clearly a tough MFer, so maybe the Eagles stick with it no matter what.

241 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

Yeah Hurts is a beast and they have perfected it where he gets pretty well insulated by his guys. At some point he will get hurt doing it and that will be the end of the tush push. It's football, something will happen. But can they tush push their way to a SB before he gets hurt or it gets banned. I think NFL will ban it after this season.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 27 Nov 2023

I've decided to try the RBOA model out on something called "soccer", which has a bunch of new games up.

Fingers crossed