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103 sats \ 5 replies \ @jeff 26 May 2022 \ on: Daily discussion thread
I think the Amboss AMA includes one of the coolest data-points in economics.
2% APY. The decentralized risk-free-rate.
It's the closest thing I can think of, to a risk free rate without some embedded default risk. I think it might the first of its kind.
And, also, it's neat. :)
I mean "2+% is pretty good" does not mean everyone can just earn 2%. That is not at all a risk free rate - that is the "pretty good" rate.
In reality most people should be glad if they can even break even with onchain channel opening cost and initial investment (your Raspberry Pi will have to be replaced every few years if the hardware isn't supported anymore for security updates).
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not mean everyone can just earn 2%
I suppose there is an implicit expectation that a RFR is the same rate that anybody can get. I guess I was excluding that. You're right -- for now. Follow up, rhetorical, question: If the network gets larger, and a node can use their capital to create 2% yield opportunities, could they securitize that product, then sell it at a different discount rate (after they have committed their own capital?). Eg. I have 1.94 BTC, I sell a channel at a 2% APY, could I borrow against that, at a rate better than 2%, say 1%, and instantly pocket the difference while getting capital to sell another channel at 2%? If so, that 1% will be a RFR that everybody could access. Admittedly, probably not, because we're back to counter-party-risk territory.
most people should be glad if they can break even
If you bin this by amount of capital, does it change? Like, "Most people with under 0.1 BTC should be glad if they can break even. If you have over 3 BTC, it gets more realistic to expect something closer to the RFR"
I'm making up the 0.1 and 3 numbers, but is there a statement like that, that holds?
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If i understand correctly what the 2% is referring to is the channels on Amboss.space marketplace where you get the money up front, the APY doesent come from the fees and the payments you route through a channel over time afaik because the channel fee is set to 0. so its a different model than the traditional one.
here is the quote
I'm watching the effect of Zero Fee Routing's management strategy really take off and inspire others to do the same. With zero routing fees, we're seeing more people choose to frontload their routing earnings through channel sales on Magma, which is something that we can verify. 2+% APY is pretty good and that's before any income that they'd make from actually routing!
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I read the comment you mentioned. But I'm not entirely sure what he meant. Could you explain more?
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In the fiat world there is the so called "risk-free rate". It is supposed to be what the system rewards you for no consumerism and no investment. Hardline-fiat-shills would say that this rate is intrinsic to ownership. They regard government bonds as this risk free rate because there is nothing with lower risk than the monetary system itself - no stock, no company bond, no nothing. Of course this is and always was below the inflation rate (in the best years maybe equal to inflation, maybe).
The question is if in the Bitcoin has a risk-free rate too. There must be a value to no consumerism and providing liquidity. There must be an intrinsic value to this because you are doing something for the community - the question just is where this is.
And the answer is probably what can be earned with low effort in the Lightning Network. They estimate from their data that it is about 2% or maybe lower.
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