I agree.
I think it just depends on how motivated the citizens are to break free, and how far the rule-makers are willing to go to slow the exodus (ie. banning VPNs, blocking p2p websites, forums, etc).
Either way, a black market would likely grow from their efforts, and I think the differential in price between captured BTC and non-captured BTC could grow to be astronomical
Is this law being talked about or has it been passed?
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