I think when everyone is looking at the federal debt they are forgetting that some municipalities and states are in worse shape and will need to be bailed out. So add some more fuel on the federal deficit fire.
They don't always get bailed out, at least not entirely. During the last recession, when Detroit collapsed, the state of Michigan was just installing emergency officers in a bunch of cities to override the local mayors and manage the bankruptcy processes. There were also a few municipalities in CA that went through something like bankruptcy a few years later. That's my recollection anyway.
I think there's a real chance that we see some of the major cities, that have been hemorrhaging capital and labor, collapse under the weight of decades of mismanagement.
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Chicago?
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People were talking about Chicago being right on the brink during the last cycle. I feel like California's really started falling apart since then, so I'd probably put my money on San Fransisco. I have some extended family in Portland and it wouldn't surprise me if Portland went down in flames either.
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