That's why I told him to dollar cost average--you can only time and predict the market cycles with vague ideas and pseudo-science astrology for finance nerds. Slowly accumulating is the only way to be sure.

That says a lot though, that he was actually open-minded enough to listen to you.

I've only been through one bull-bear cycle, and now I am much more careful about exactly what I tell people. I once was so certain that BTC would never dip below $30k again. How stupid that was!

usagi

I told him to buy bitcoin. He bought it, then watched it go sideways and thought it wasn't performing as well as his vanguard managed fund so he sold it. I don't tell people to buy bitcoin anymore; I tell them to learn about it--and about how fiat currency is devalued over time.