I think that's right on both fronts. LSPs are kind of the technological event horizon and are centralized as is the usual case even with technology destined for decentralization. Theoretically, you're not trusting an LSP (financially) more than a normal lightning peer, so LSPs should mostly compete on service quality. This should lend itself to a robust-ish LSP-dominated hub and spoke network even if it isn't the mesh network ideal. The cheaper and easier lightning nodes become to run, the less LSPs are needed. Lightning nodes are just not cheap and easy to run right now.