163 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 26 Oct 2023 \ on: Meta Econ Takeover Day 9 meta
First thing I would consider in this thought experiment is that we have a lead time before the deposit takes place. One would imagine the government would need to put strict price controls and hoarding rules in place to prevent everyone from trying to front run the event. What consequences would that have? How would it be enforced? (not possible to enforce the actions of millions of businesses and 350M people I would think so their enforcement likely fails). What are the geopolitical ramifications. The US is essentially rug pulling foreign treasury and currency holders. But also essentially providing a debt jubilee to US debt denominated holders. This will create significant tension between the lottery winners and the bag holders, in my opinion, all over the world.
Completely rug pulling foreign bond holders like China seems untenable and could lead to extreme retribution so they will need to make some sort of deal with large foreign treasury holders beforehand. Even if they manage to avoid significant front running of event and somehow strike deals with foreign treasury and currency holders to make them somewhat whole, maybe they accomplish this through federal land swaps, maybe military equipment, maybe the US gold holdings, or other assets etc, chaos is inevitable in my opinion.
Regardless of how well this is strategized, planned, organized, even with superpowered AI (it's 2040) it is not possible to map out every possibility in a complex dynamical system with hundreds of millions of actors making thousands (if not more) of potential decisions. Once the deposit hits, prices begin to rise but not at the rate of money supply growth as it likely takes weeks or even months to find market price equilibrium. Existing inventory of pretty much everything gets bought up almost immediately and now we have a major problem because most people have a misunderstanding that all that has changed is the amount of currency they own, not the value of it- in fact the value has significantly declined because the currency is no longer trustworthy, so most people quit their jobs and the supply side of economy grinds to a halt while there is red hot demand. Now this is 2040 so maybe we have a breakthrough in AI, robotics by this point and can make this up in some parts of the economy but there is likely a major resource shortage globally to make all the stuff consumers are now demanding. People have the money to buy the things they need and want but can't get it which has them completely losing faith in the system. Then begins the riots, looting, civil unrest, inevitable military intervention to keep the peace.
Eventually the government can no longer fund itself other than through taxation, asset liquidation and expropriation. This creates more chaos and civil unrest, forcing the government to grow ever more authoritarian using AI to surveil everyone and the military to enforce the "law". The US quickly devolves into a third world country.
Maybe we get a happy ending and Bitcoin fixes it.