0 sats \ 16 replies \ @jk_14 OP 22 Oct 2023 \ parent \ on: "If all the people around tells you that you’re drunk - maybe you're just drunk" bitcoin
active users - users actively using on-chain transactions in Bitcoin, let say those who are paying transactional tax/fee
passive users - stakeholders using Bitcoin mainly as a Store-of-Value, so those who are paying inflation tax/fee
as a side note:
miners are able to earn only as much, as both these groups with opposite interests - are able to pay miners in their own (transactional or inflation) tax/fee
Hey retard, quit free riding life itself by having smarter people explain why you are retarded to you for free!
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"If all the people around tell you that you’re drunk - maybe you're just drunk..." lol
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Exactly, many bitcoiners can tell you why you're dumb, while the people echoing your concerns are mostly shitcoiners. Sober up
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go ahead and argue even more with the annoying truth... ;)
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I've never heard people saving gold called free riders. Also never heard this characterization of Bitcoiners. Seems wrong to me.
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I've never heard people saving gold must keep gold mines working - just to preserve the value of gold that they already posses...
keeping completely unprofitable gold mines - as working, just because the amount of gold they are able to mine - is negligible now in the comparsion to the past times...
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You are making an argument against something I'm not saying.
My overall impression of his arguement and yours is that there a many variables that we can't know and therefore it is not hard to come up with a scenero where theres a problem we do not have a solution for yet. How could we.
Assumptions. That mining would be unprofitable. We dont know the cost of energy the value of bitcoin in relation to that cost. We also do not know the volume of transactions as well as the fee levels.
Then he jumps to another crypto... Well there are many issues with that move that most bitcoiners already see so it seems this is coming from a misguided view of the soundness of bitcoin.
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Profitability is immaterial, as is BTC price. All that matters is that less subsidy means increased incentive to reorg previous blocks rather than advance the chain in an orderly fashion.
If I can get 1 BTC to advance the chain or 5 BTC to reorg the last block with the most expensive transactions already there plus the most expensive ones in the mempool since then, then the game theory securing orderly advancement starts to deteriorate.
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Isn't there more to the game theory than this one angle? This view seems to discount other factors.
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There are plenty of other factors I can think of, such as out-of-band payments, but they only serve to worsen the outlook. At the end of the day, miners are mining blocks to get BTC, and reducing the subsidy reduces their incentive to do that in the expected, orderly fashion.
If I'm missing something, please share so I can put my mind at ease. Until this is ironed out in my mind, I cannot be a 13%-er.
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Your concerns are legit, so I don't know how to put your mind at ease. But one thing you haven't mentioned is that if miners start fucking with previous blocks as a general strategy, the value of btc in general is likely to go into the toilet, which means they'll be killing their golden goose. That's another element to consider, and why this is so hard to reason about with anything like confidence.
What I think you can reason about is that everything we currently know suggests that paying for reasonable levels of security is likely to be a problem, and something will have to be done eventually. Throwing a wide net around what that 'something' is would be a very good thing to start to do in earnest.
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Yes, I agree on both points, but I also think your point about decreasing value of BTC would be a second-order consequence and the naughty miners would already have their profits in the bag. In today's advanced marketplace, these "miners" may not even need to own ASICs, since they can purchase hashrate to scalp large fees - without a subsidy, hashrate becomes more malleable to the highest bidder. Likewise, a decreasing BTC value could result in fewer miners, which lowers the difficulty for reorg shenanigans to be successful. So I actually think the worse BTC performs, the easier it becomes for nonsense to carry on.
I think your second point is really important, and I'm glad this thread has been quite civil because I know it can be a sensitive topic. I would really like to see discussions about contingency plans because I think these issues can be very "gradually and then suddenly" in how they manifest. Having a community consensus around possible ways to handle it and maybe some math/models and/or code skeletons to test/simulate would be really beneficial.
We dont know the cost of energy the value of bitcoin in relation to that cost.
But does the security of the network even depend on that?
I think it only depends on how much hash rate a malicious entity (such as a government trying to destroy Bitcoin) can control in relation to the total hash rate.
Let's say the US gov wants to destroy it. If the energy prices rise by 10x, the hash rate will drop, which may make the network seem more vulnerable to attacks, but the US gov's hash rate will also drop, keeping their share of the total hash rate (and therefore the network's vulnerability) constant.
Unless they can somehow control the use of energy through coercive legislation enforced effectively.
In other words, it depends on the level of centralization of power in the world. Which bitcoiners like to believe Bitcoin will decrease (along the lines of what "The Sovereign Individual" predicts...)
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"You are making an argument against something I'm not saying."
No, I just modified argument that you said - to show you better the difference between gold holder and Bitcoin holder.
Bitcoin is going from the one edge case (infinity) to the opposite edge case (zero) with the inflation, I hope you agree.
Show me any example of a healthy system, which is staying in the middle of the edge case, please.
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