120 sats \ 1 reply \ @scottathan OP 18 Oct 2023 \ on: Meta Econ Takeover: China’s Economic Headwinds meta
Super good discussion of the short and long term problems facing China.

TL;DR
China's liberalization was a major success story, but has recently become a problem as China starts to de-liberalize and return to Maoist policies. This trend exacerbates several existing short term and long term problems for China.

Short Term Problems
  • High youth unemployment (>20%)
  • Other countries have blocked China from importing semi-conductors
  • Chinese real estate is collapsing
  • Investors don't want to get involved with the nation because of these problems

Long Term Headwinds
  • Demographic Issues: China's birth rates have fallen precipitously, faster than other developed nations
  • Brain Drain: Talented Chinese are leaving the nation in search of better jobs in other countries
  • Declining Dynamism: China is slowly becoming less innovative, as their productivity has stalled in comparison to other nations

Conclusion
China is facing numerous concerning problems in both the short and long term that can only be cured by a return to the process of liberalization that made them wealthy in the first place.
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31 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 18 Oct 2023
East Asia, in general, has severe demographic issues. I think South Korea actually has even lower fertility rates. I've read that if the current fertility trends continue, East Asia is facing the most rapid intergenerational population decline in human history. The current record holder is the Americas after small pox arrived.
As bad as the brain drain is, it could easily be much worse. I went to grad school with many brilliant Chinese students who almost all were hoping to get academic jobs in America, because our current visa system would then let them stay indefinitely. Most of them would have been happy to take industry jobs in America, but then they might get deported if they don't win the visa lottery. The result is that enormous numbers of brilliant Chinese graduates have to go back to China every year, despite wanting to stay and employers wanting them to stay.
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