3020 sats \ 1 reply \ @BTC_LN 16 Oct 2023 \ on: Does anyone know of a way to see total buy volume required for a 5% move? bitcoin
First, let's define the what a 5% move means.
If you mean a sudden jump across the top 10 exchanges that isn't necessarily sustained for any amount of time, then it's possible to calculate it, because we know the order books. A coordinated sudden buy can make it happen.
But, I'm pretty sure you don't mean that. You mean a jump that stays for at least 10 minutes or more. That's really hard to judge because we don't know the intentions of the traders and more importantly their bots who react to the initial price jump. Do they mostly take a quick profit and dump a whole bunch of bitcoin, or do they take off their bitcoin from the books to ensure they don't sell too low while a rally is happening.
Also, there are two important factors to consider:
-
How how many exchanges need to display a certain price level for the others to catch up. I assume if the top 2-3 exchanges had a higher price, the rest will follow suit. So it's probable that you don't even need to buy the bitcoin available on 10 or more exchanges, just 2-3.
-
The amount required will change over time. It literally changes somewhat ever second. So there is no universal answer to this question.
But regardless, here is a very rought estimate:
For a sudden unsustained jump, on Binance we currently have 700 BTC that need to be bought off to reach 5%+ price. We need to at least double this to make a move on multiple exchanges. So, I would say you need enough cash to buy 1500 BTC, which is like in the range of USD 40M+.
For a more sustained increase, I would say you need to keep buying all incoming offers below the 5%+ price for as long as you want to maintain the price, which could be another USD 4M+ per minute. At one point you could stop buying and the price will hold. If you needed to do it for 15 minutes, you would need a total of USD 100M+.
🙏
reply