Thanks Ken, I was talking mostly about the US and single family homes. Apartments/condos excluded. I have a solar and battery setup that's 2 years old and produce about 130%. When my geothermal for cooling/heating is complete it will be closer to 250%. The cost of both is falling. The technological efficiency of both are increasing. Finding newly built single family homes without one or the other will become rare in about 7 years, not just because of state incentives, but because of economics and demand. You mentioned hydroelectricity, that's also renewable. Quebec has an overabundance of hydro and is running it to New York City via HVDC. Ethiopia will produce 80% of their country's electricity with the GERD dam and so on.
Cellphones, VCRs, electric cars, video games, etc, were once things only for rich people and non-existent in the developing world. Same with renewable energy infrastructure. That started to change around 2015 though. The developing world accounts for around 54% of (non-hydro) renewable energy investment now. Don't focus solely on solar, also consider wind and geothermal and nuclear. Just like we see a mix of fossil fuels providing energy as geographical circumstances demand today, assume there will be a mix of renewable energy technologies tomorrow.
I've read Alex Epstein's recent book Fossil Future, and met him once when he was walking his well-groomed dog. He's discounted fossil fuel geopolitical friction, grid interconnectors, and the capacity of human ingenuity a bit, but it was a good read.
Sorry I've taken a while to respond to this.
You have given points to the effect of "renewable are not being allowed to compete with fossils" and to the extent that this is true, that shows the corrupting effect of fiat. And the unnecessary politicization of energy supply and demand economics. Only thing governments had to do in 2009, or 2010, even 2023, is mine and learn about BTC like their citizens. And ask for it in taxes. And all would be well with the world. It will happen eventually. Thank goodness for the fact that BTC is an idea whose time has come.
It might be true that renewable are becoming cheaper in many parts of the world for household needs. But most households, industry and social services can't get past the infrastructure costs like mega battery packs and decentralized grids for energy synchronization.
Now, allow me share on how I think it will happen. Some research has show that BTC can help supercharge the energy transition --> https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/bitcoin-mining-solar-wind-renewable-energy-b2454666.html My own back of the napkin calculations involving the power consumption of the hash rate, the mining rewards and the value growth of the currency (which tracks everything like transactions within it) confirms it.
The facts are startling.
People are willing to pay or invest about 6x more money in their electiricty bill if it is running Bitcoin or some Bitcoin related productivity, than if it was running Netflix, Cable TV, Refrigerators in a Supermarket, Video games, etc. Name it.
Because that is what the growth in value means. People are pumping funds into Bitcoin.
This is wild and means the best way to really transition is to build as many BTC projects around the world, run them on renewables and wherever possible, and subsidize the whole thing with fossils as renewable tech matures.
Again, it will happen. Because it is an idea whose time has come.
Sam Altman wants $7 trillion to build AI systems but Bitcoin-for-renewables is serious competition he isn't thinking about. Again, people are willing to pay for electiricty mining/transacting BTC than for electricty generating impressive ChatGPT prompts.
I'm hoping to systemize all this in an article on Hackernoon.com. Stay tuned.
reply
I feel in this case the goal is to get to the point where renewable energy is sufficient to build all the requirements for more renewable energy. It's here the subsidies will dissipate. Until then, subsidies for fossil fuels (the largest of them all) and renewables are necessary, and thusly, so is a fiat standard. In the world of a commodity money base layer, it should absorb the value of products and services added to the global economy. Energy however, is required to produce an overabundance of those. I'm with you bitcoin as a mechanism can supercharge renewable growth, appreciating in value with the overabundance it can create. Almost like a circular recycling mechanism.
Too, a world with few dictators (most will statistically be beyond the age of death by next decade) is important, because it reduces disruption and friction, which is costing us all too much. International grids are an incentive aligning tool.
reply
With retards like you, it's no wonder the fiat overlords feel ok about enslaving the world. Luckily, bitcoin neuters the damage that retards like you can bring about.
reply
Oh dear Delta how long since? Where there's a nod to anything green on this platform you're certain to follow with that X-style rhetoric. Bitcoin will speed up the neutering of your favorite WTI brands. Many will mistake it as damage.
reply
Post the hackernoon article please
reply