21 sats \ 2 replies \ @cryptocoin OP 13 May 2022 \ on: Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending [count of spambots] | @ElonMusk bitcoin
This man plays 4-D chess!
He had to know that the fake and bot accounts had to be way higher than 5% of the 229M "monetizable" users.
After signalling the ax for staff and the end of non-transparent censorship, a bunch of employees have left or have already started job hunting. He didn't have to spend a dime and half his problem with Twitter is already being resolved!
So now the market tanks, Musk has this 5% issue (which would likely end up interesting to the SEC, since the estimate was made after the buyout deal was reached) and uses it to get a great discount on the price, ... or maybe walks away and lets Twitter crumble in the vacuum left after buyout collapse, and he gets to put in a stink bid down the road.
Yes, this is standard "good negotiating" tactics: Get the other party to commit in principle, then negotiate price.
He's both backed the board into a corner and started clearing out dissenters simultaneously, therefore they are now under pressure to sell at any reasonable price. Given the market downturn - and continued weakness going forward - this provides a movable discount he can press.
Furthermore, there is no reason why he can't claim that those "5%" bots should equal a 10-20% discount, since those bots by their nature have an outsized impact on the platform (ie. real people may only post 1 tweet per week, however most bots are voracious posters)
Frankly speaking, the "best" outcome would be for us to not have a single twitter at all, but instead transform twitter into just-another-mastodon-node
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Twitter has no incentive to tear down their walls, so I don't think that will happen without new owners wanting that strategy and willing to endure turning that lumbering ship.
I check in occasionally to see how nostr is progressing. I suspect that'll be what supplants Twitter, but no idea how long that might take. Network effects are strong.
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