Operation Chokepoint 2.0 made Utah ILCs and other banks of the style that underpin lending startups unwilling to touch "crypto".

Before that, it would have been plausible to start a business that originates fiat loans for the purchase of bitcoin (sort of a layaway/mortgage style).

If the bitcoin were held in a 2-of-2 deadlocked arrangement between customer and lending company, it ensures company cannot rehypothecate, and ensures the loan is at least eventually paid off.

It is a great business, and as the calculator on https://faucet21.com shows, it allows people to end up with a lot more bitcoin.

As companies like Swan, Unchained, Strike, and River with mediocre business models chase greater revenue for investors, those companies and others will build lending tools like this, but for a bitcoin ETF rather than bitcoin.

In this way, they can gain 10x higher fees on 10x the investment capital (note, this is effectively the money printer getting connected directly into bitcoin purchasing) all the while triggering NGU. I anticipate the ETF will actually be 1:1 for a long time because there is an end game.

It will become the standard for noobs to get in this way and the bitcoin price will rise into the millions -- most influencers, podcasts, and conferences will dismiss the problems due to NGU.

Then when the bitcoin ETF rivals the pension or housing bubbles, perhaps even just low tens of trillions, the 6102 will be announced, and the ETF will turn into fiat 2.0.

There will be a conversion window turning all fiat 1.0 into fiat 2.0 (maybe all tied to a central federal reserve account that individuals have access to), so there is your first large chunk of devaluation.

There will be top down attempts to force all contracts to be denominated in fiat 2.0 -- large companies will pay salaries in it, BlackRock will rent houses in it, and fiat cash will be eliminated for total surveillance.

If it does not fall within days to weeks, fiat 2.0 will fail shortly thereafter as it trades at a significant discount on the international markets due to its market estimated amount of underlying bitcoin combined with huge counterparty risk and lack of auditability.

Nations that minimize the violence and theft they carry out in this tumultuous time may emerge as new global Schelling points and private companies will step in to further stabilize these regions by providing voluntary rule of law and insurance services.