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379 sats \ 2 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 4 Oct 2023 \ on: Blackrock's gameplan bitcoin
Here's a few counter points:
  • Bitcoin is worldwide. Nobody in China, Russia, etc gives two shits about BlackRock ETF.
  • Most of the Bitcoin is already held by long term holders. I doubt they'll sell to Larry.
  • Ownership is not control. It's irrelevant how much MicroStrategy stock they own.
  • BlackRock can say they decide which fork all they want. It doesn't change the reality that the global market and the global nodes decide the fork.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023
Take btc and one fork.
Assume blackrock has sufficient capital and pull to undermine btcs price significantly
Say you see btc price going down to $500 and the fork going up to $200,000 . how many people will hold the dropping btc?
I get that the current bitcoiners are very ideological and value based. But how many will hold fast in that scenario?
Blackrock is 100% global. Check what they own and what reach they have globally .
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 6 Oct 2023
First of all, you can imagine any scenario you want. I can imagine a zombie apocalypse but that doesn't change the likelihood of it actually happening.
But let's assume for a moment your scenario came true. In that scenario, a hard fork created by BlackRock, whatever amount of BTC you hold on one chain you'll also hold on the other chain.
In other words, if you're holding 1 BTC you'll now also hold 1 BLKBTC. And somehow they've magically manipulated the price up of BLKBTC to $200k and the price down of BTC to $500.
What is a rational market actor incentivized to do?
  1. Are they going to sell $500 worth of BTC and put it into BLKBTC? This trade makes no sense for most people.
  2. Will they sell their BLKBTC and buy more BTC? This trade makes a lot of sense to current ideological Bitcoiners. Some people would definitely do that, myself included.
  3. Most people will do something in between these two extremes.
Again, you can imagine any number of variations of these scenarios but figuring out how they'd actually play out in reality is very different.
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