Why Should One Care About Rising US Bond Yields?
2115 sats \ 11 comments \ @kr 3 Oct 2023 meta
I’m not well versed in the bonds world, so i’m hoping someone on here can explain why one should care about rising US bond yields.
i get the direct implications of the US needing to spend more on interest payments when their existing bonds mature, but i’m curious to learn more about the second-order effects. i’m also not sold on the idea that the rising interest costs are a real problem for the functioning of our financial system (at least in the near term)… seems like more money printing is the obvious solution… with the obvious side effect of more inflation.
the way some macro folks talk about it on twitter, you’d think a 5% 10 year yield means the world is coming to an end, and i’m not really connecting the dots there.
the narrative a couple of years ago was that the US couldn’t possibly raise rates because of the high debt load, but here we are.
do you see rising US bond yields as a meaningful problem in the next year? what are the second-order consequences of US bond yields going up from here?
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4867 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 3 Oct 2023
I'm no expert. I'm sure others here can provide more insight, but here's a few things:
  1. Bond yields rise as the value falls. Bond funds, pension funds, and other investment vehicles are mandated to own them. The values have now plummeted. This could put retiree's pensions in jeopardy. This loss of value caused the spring regional bank failures.
  2. The 10 year treasury is tied to US mortgage rates. As rates rise, the housing market is destroyed. People can't qualify for loans at higher rates.
  3. Government bonds are used as a benchmark for business loans. The debt market is drying up, which inhibits commerce. Businesses can't qualify at the higher rates.
  4. The scariest thing from US perspective is that rising rates reveal less confidence in the value of US treasuries, considered by many a risk free asset. Too much supply, and no demand. This loss of confidence can bring down the whole house of cards.
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177 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 3 Oct 2023
very helpful, thanks!
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804 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 3 Oct 2023
@siggy47 mostly covered it.
Another thing to look out for is the number of businesses that will go under / lay people off. Many businesses finance their operations with debt. When that debt comes due, they'll roll over with new debt. But if the new debt is at a higher rate, that's an added cost and all of a sudden they can't afford the same operation as before. Unless they somehow increase revenues, they will have to downsize or simply eat the cost and lose money. But not all businesses are able to do that for a sustained period of time.
Some may even argue that this benefits the bigger players, who because of their size and stability are still able to acquire relatively cheap financing even in the high-rate environment. It's the small businesses and speculative startups that are likely to get hurt the most.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 3 Oct 2023
Very good point. In fact today's Wall Street Journal has an article on the rise of small business bankruptcies.
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203 sats \ 0 replies \ @mallardshead 3 Oct 2023
The national debt is:
5% of that is around $1.6T (trillion) dollars annually. Ostensibly, that means it's costing more than the largest covid bill just to service the debt annually. It would be a problem if there wasn't demand for US debt. But there is demand, and the US has exorbitant privilege. It controls, prints, and sets interest rates on the world's reserve currency. It has the most perceived safety (in relative terms compared to everything else), and most debt pricing is done in USD. In Forex markets 8 of the top 10 trading pairs making up like 95% of all Forex volume involve the USD as the quote or base currency. So most negative and second-order effects will be felt by foreign countries with high debt to GDP ratios, emerging markets at large, and weak(er) currencies.
For these foreign countries, their cost to borrow, cost to finance old debt with new debt, attractiveness for investment, falling exchange rates for their currencies against the dollar, and cost to import goods is a big problem. For the US though, higher rates suck up global liquidity back into US control, strengthening the dollar (in relative terms against all other fiat currencies), which is why the USD is now stronger (again in relative terms) than it's been since the Bush Administration.
The crisis narrative crowd on twitter never wins, because they bet against humanity, which beyond short time frames is a bad bet, until we see an extinction event.
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193 sats \ 0 replies \ @edulopesf 4 Oct 2023
They'll simply come up with another finance engineered solution to post pone the problem... as always...
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60 sats \ 1 reply \ @Ribbit 3 Oct 2023
How much money would your friend have to give you as security against him sleeping with your girlfriend/wife ?
It would increase depending on how much you trust them right ?
One friend might be a total dog, and you demand 100,000$ as a security for him to go on road trip with your girlfriend/wife.
Another friend you trust completely, and charge him 10$ or nothing.
In this analogy the friend is Treasury Bills and the U.S government is constantly trying to fuck you over.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 3 Oct 2023
😂😂
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @joyepzion 4 Oct 2023
Raising bonds will affect access to loans and mortgages over time
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @faithandcredit 3 Oct 2023
The US government is bankrupt :) Its spending more money than it "earns". The rude awakening is coming.
What is it going to look like? 10% drop in GDP at least. Because the US gov is only about 30% short in the budget. So when it defaults, the budget will shrink 30%. And afaik US gov is like 50% of GDP. So there will be pain when it busts and reconfigures. The goldilocks economy and the crazy bitcoin rallies are a thing of the past tho. Im not sure this helps anyone. But, feel free to comment.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0330830bf9 3 Oct 2023
If Bitcoin is to consume all other currencies all other currencies must be first consumed by the dollar.
Non-dollars are like algae or shrimp, they get eaten by larger things which in turn get eaten by larger things.
The dollar needs to eat it's shrimp before the Bitcoin whale can consume it.
Some call in the dollar milkshake.
This would be catastrophic to the status quo, so [they] will attempt to stop it by doing some form of curve control via printflation.
Checkmate for Bitcoin.
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