I was listening to the latest poddy from Svetski and Knut regarding the sat squeese during hyperbitcoinisation and that the float of bitcoin would be around 1 million.
Each cycle we see people coming in, and doing things like
- Stuffing up self custody
- Sending to addresses where the private key is lost
- Losing their private keys
- Thinking a "dust" UTXO can't be moved and getting rid of the wallet
- Sending to an address that doesn't exist
- Dying without having a plan to hand over
All eating into the supply of lost bitcoin, I've seen estimates that up to 3 million bitcoin have already been lost and we know there are only 2 million still to come over the next century
My estimate would be around half the supply 9 -10 million will be available and accessible, not to saying they'll all be moved and eventually a satoshi won't be small enough of a unit