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Curious to know what folks on here think of Chamath’s latest tweet where he explains how AI and labor are about to push corporations and their shareholders towards automation and labor reduction.
a few questions…
  • what parts of this twitter thread do you agree with?
  • what parts do you disagree with?
  • what role will labor play in our economy a decade from now?
  • will this AI transformation meaningfully change wealth concentration?
  • are there any other important second-order effects you think AI will have on the world?
I think he's correct and don't have anything major to quibble with.
It makes sense for unions to fight for higher pay, but they are up against the inexorable forces of technology, automation, and profit maximization.
And one thing I'll add: profit maximization is NOT a symptom of capitalism. Even in communist countries people will seek to maximize profit. They just operate in a different organizational environment, is all.
I predict the first order effect is that economic inequality will get worse. Instead of hiring one supervisor and 10 artists, you now hire one supervisor and one AI to produce the same amount of outputs.. Naturally the supervisor will accrue the gains, but the 10 former artists are out of a job or have to take lower pay.
Of course, there will always be adjustments. These people whose jobs are no longer needed--what will they do, where will they go? Jobs resistant to automation, like personal care, are likely to see an influx of workers, perhaps lowering the wages. There will likely be pressure to unionize those jobs to protect incumbents from the influx of workers, or to put up stringent licensing requirements (again, to protect from influx of new workers).
There will be a lot of bumps in the road. Product quality might suffer early when AI is not able to perfectly replace human workers. But probably the kinks will get worked out over time, or people will just get used to the new reality of lower cost but crappier products, like we always do.
Finally, the speed of the transformation will depend on interest rates. Lower rates will result in bigger gambles in AI and speed the transition.
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interesting, i wonder if we’ll see the “artists” you speak of transition to creating things that AI cannot (or returning to physical sculptures, oil paintings, or some other art form).
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Probably some will, but not all. So the net effect will probably be a reduction in the number of artists, or others whose jobs can be replaced by AI.
But it also makes you wonder whether there will be a consumer side reaction. Will people seek after products that are still made mostly by humans? Will it be like a luxury good to do so? Will we even be able to tell?
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He's just parroting stuff we've heard from others. Sucks fiat has created so many of these douches. I think Ai is great for a small set of businesses. But if everyone has it, then everyone can cut costs. That's great until someone cuts prices. Then it's great for consumers. Not so much for margins. Then there's competition there before a labor reorg.
What isn't talked about enough is how Ai can supercharge FOSS and what that means.
A bunch of the Ai stocks (Nvidia et al) are already priced like they might be in 2030. To my eyes their valuations assume everything plays out perfectly with massive growth and dominant market share. I think they'll disappoint in terms of how much they appreciate in value from here forward. Photonics can seriously disrupt the space too
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who are the “others” he is parroting from?
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A bunch of the WSJ articles and interviews over the last year. Jeff Booth. Andreessen (of shitcoin and Horowitz fame) had a similar take, but Chamath and him probably share wives. A couple of the self-appointed YouTube gurus I check in on did as well.
Harvard Business Review is probably covering the business side of Ai well, but I haven't bought any of their case studies dealing with Ai. HBR is a little too down to earth for me. 😄
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I see him as a fiat influencer, and as such I don't give him much credit. As @mallardshead said, he is probably just repeating what others have said. The best take I've seen on AI is that the current crop of AI business is comparable to the dot com bubble. Currently there are a lot of questionable AI solutions out there as everyone is trying to surf the hype, most will have to go bust so that we can find the really worthy ones. Other than that, commenting on Chamath is below my line. :)
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It sounds like he read the first three quarters of "Price of Tomorrow" by Jeff Booth, and now he's rehashing Jeff's ideas as his own to his audience while trying to put his own stamp on it by coining a catchphrase he bolded twice because he hopes it'll catch on so he'll be quoted in articles on Forbes or WSJ and normies will think he's some genius investor so they'll listen to his shitty podcast and take his advice and buy s*lana, and voila, further exit liquidity for Chamath and Co.
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