Mining is where bitcoin interfaces with reality and the economics are largely energy arbitrage. Hash price vs hash cost.
For bitcoin to have the benefits it currently does for energy grids and energy systems there is almost an equilibrium of price and margin. Ie if price were to 2X+ today and it become profitable for people to mine with S9s in their home at 10 cent power that won’t be good for energy grids and the demand response narrative (although difficulty adjustment would eventually return market to equilibrium).
When the halving happens it leaves room for Bitcoin price to double and hash price economics and energy margins to remain relatively the same.
NGU solves subsidy goes down. Everything mining incentive wise is in the hashprice vs hashcost and naturally it’s better for btc price to double around halving events while minimizing extreme upside volatility in hashprice so as to not negatively unbalance grid incentives for miners.
Also even if institutional / public miners capture more and more hashrate bitcoin mining will always be global and Russian / nation state mining will get transactions added to the ledger.
Bitcoin price WILL NOT go x2 every halving. Do the math: 2^30 of current purchasing power of 26k usd