"NATO Fractures" the hyperbolistic headline reads, then runs for 1000 words interrupted by low-rez Twitter takes of people desperate for a peace deal or Russian victory, because they've been so thoroughly embarrassed by Ukraine's success, the inability of Russia to hold Europe's economy hostage via energy, and the US' brilliant design pattern on the war. I was once into the perpetual crisis narratives of ZeroHedge back in the 2008-09 period. They were wrong about everything then, and have been wrong about everything since.
The US defense budget has been falling for years now in real terms. What the US is doing is weakening an enemy (Russia) for a drop in the bucket of that budget, while selling energy to our allies (EU) for more money than our enemy did, while putting a resource rich country in debt (Ukraine), and losing no men in the process. It's frighteningly efficient.
Much of the equipment we've given Ukraine (tanks, missiles near expiration, trucks, small arms, etc) has been sitting in deserts and armories collecting dust. In total the Ukraine specific bills have totaled $50B. We give more money than that to Israel every year. It's an insignificant amount of money. The F-15s we're giving them are useless in a world of F-35s at scale, but important to Ukraine.
Ukraine meanwhile has built up a private drone industry now capable of striking targets in Moscow and Crimea and the Russian sea fleet; they've developed one of the most advanced diffusion Ai models for mapping the battlefield; they've unified their people who've given an excellent account of themselves; they've slaughtered so many Russians that Russia is recruiting from Cuba and Africa; they've destroyed so much Russian armor and artillery that Russia can't replace them as sanctions have eliminated their ability to acquire parts/materials so they've resorted to courting Kim Jong Un to re-supply; half of Russia's top generals have been killed; hostile factions are starting to form across Russia, the Wagner mutiny just a taste of what's to come; their currency has gotten trashed in Forex markets; they're running up massive debt to Iran and China who are supplying them with drones and combat materials; their smartest and most skilled young people have all fled; they failed to hold Europe's economy hostage through energy; the price of oil hasn't stayed high enough through the conflict for them to balance their budget; their military is being replaced by less experienced soldiers as each previous wave gets killed off; their demographics were already terrible before the invasion; war crime inquiries are open on several Russian leaders; and the list can go on for another 1000 words.
Ukraine held a conference in Warsaw back in March called ReBuild Ukraine. It was very well-attended by companies and wealthy people from around the world. It was so successful they're doing another one. Ukraine bonds are one of the hottest investments. And many investors look at Ukraine like Japan after it was nuked and firebombed to ash. It was rebuilt from 1945-1952, and shortly after that became the second largest economy in the world.
Russia will hyperinflate, implode, see a revolt, and balkanize. Investors are pretty much finished with one-man governments. And Russia will never sell energy in the quantity they did before the war to Europe. Putin had a good thing going. He and his military have been exposed. When Ukraine establishes air supremacy with the F-15s after the winter, they'll take Crimea shortly after. Russia is fucked, they just don't know it because the printers haven't melted yet.
"NATO Fractures" the hyperbolistic headline reads, then runs for 1000 words interrupted by low-rez Twitter takes of people desperate for a peace deal or Russian victory, because they've been so thoroughly embarrassed by Ukraine's success, the inability of Russia to hold Europe's economy hostage via energy, and the US' brilliant design pattern on the war. I was once into the perpetual crisis narratives of ZeroHedge back in the 2008-09 period. They were wrong about everything then, and have been wrong about everything since.
Genuinely curious: can you share some data on Ukraine's success? I would love to educate myself
The US defense budget has been falling for years now in real terms. What the US is doing is weakening an enemy (Russia) for a drop in the bucket of that budget, while selling energy to our allies (EU) for more money than our enemy did, while putting a resource rich country in debt (Ukraine), and losing no men in the process. It's frighteningly efficient.
Much of the equipment we've given Ukraine (tanks, missiles near expiration, trucks, small arms, etc) has been sitting in deserts and armories collecting dust. In total the Ukraine specific bills have totaled $50B. We give more money than that to Israel every year. It's an insignificant amount of money. The F-15s we're giving them are useless in a world of F-35s at scale, but important to Ukraine.
Ukraine meanwhile has built up a private drone industry now capable of striking targets in Moscow and Crimea and the Russian sea fleet; they've developed one of the most advanced diffusion Ai models for mapping the battlefield; they've unified their people who've given an excellent account of themselves; they've slaughtered so many Russians that Russia is recruiting from Cuba and Africa; they've destroyed so much Russian armor and artillery that Russia can't replace them as sanctions have eliminated their ability to acquire parts/materials so they've resorted to courting Kim Jong Un to re-supply; half of Russia's top generals have been killed; hostile factions are starting to form across Russia, the Wagner mutiny just a taste of what's to come; their currency has gotten trashed in Forex markets; they're running up massive debt to Iran and China who are supplying them with drones and combat materials; their smartest and most skilled young people have all fled; they failed to hold Europe's economy hostage through energy; the price of oil hasn't stayed high enough through the conflict for them to balance their budget; their military is being replaced by less experienced soldiers as each previous wave gets killed off; their demographics were already terrible before the invasion; war crime inquiries are open on several Russian leaders; and the list can go on for another 1000 words.
Ukraine held a conference in Warsaw back in March called ReBuild Ukraine. It was very well-attended by companies and wealthy people from around the world. It was so successful they're doing another one. Ukraine bonds are one of the hottest investments. And many investors look at Ukraine like Japan after it was nuked and firebombed to ash. It was rebuilt from 1945-1952, and shortly after that became the second largest economy in the world.
Russia will hyperinflate, implode, see a revolt, and balkanize. Investors are pretty much finished with one-man governments. And Russia will never sell energy in the quantity they did before the war to Europe. Putin had a good thing going. He and his military have been exposed. When Ukraine establishes air supremacy with the F-15s after the winter, they'll take Crimea shortly after. Russia is fucked, they just don't know it because the printers haven't melted yet.
Gives me more motivation to turn on 3D printer and print more grenade tail fin stabilizers for Ukraine drone warfare efforts.
hold my popcorn