pull down to refresh
In that case, the information of existing picks must be hidden until the end since else, you could just see which option has the most (or least) votes already. But this would kill one nice property of prediction markets: to show real-time information.
Yes. I don't use them so they don't mean much to me. Is it such an interesting property?
Also, a prediction market includes selling shares, not only buying shares (=betting).
Make it binary. "I bet this will lose" / "I bet this will win" , no?
Also, I think you are replacing one problem (oracle problem) with another problem (sybil resistance). You would need to KYC your users so they can't just create more votes out of thin air and create a lot of votes for every vote they didn't pick.
So you mean, someone anonymous could (in the "which choice will be bet on least") buy more shares than anyone else and also shares in the artificial winner? That could be worked out fairly seems to me, using the power of maths
reply
Yes. I don't use them so they don't mean much to me. Is it such an interesting property?
If you're trying to find out the probability of real events before they happen (hence predicting), yes. Since if the prediction market can't show you information until the event happened, it does not provide any useful information. Prediction markets are also sometimes called information markets.
Make it binary. "I bet this will lose" / "I bet this will win" , no?
But you should still be able to exit the market before the market runs out. So yes, you need "this will win" and "this will lose" (in both options you enter the market by betting some amount) but you also need "this will no longer win" and "this will no longer lose".
Else it's more like sports betting, not a prediction market.
Sorry if I'm being pedantic but this difference is important to me, haha
So you mean, someone anonymous could (in the "which choice will be bet on least") buy more shares than anyone else and also shares in the artificial winner?
Yeah, that was my initial idea but they would lose sats to win sats in that case. So no longer sure if that's a real problem in your idea.
However, you would need to pick a deadline since it's no event determined by external factors.
reply
It's awesome that you're working on this, it's definitely a hard problem to solve but one that would give great unique value to users. Feel free to bounce ideas with me, don't worry about being pedantic or anything I love it!
Yeah, how do you crowdsource prediction? How do you let users bet "this will win" while also allowing them to change their mind and bet the opposite? Especially, how do you do that with anonymous users (i.e. "sybil immunity").
I suppose I think about it in terms of the old puzzle with the two guards, one who always lies and one who always tells the truth. Your objective is to choose one of two doors (win/lose) and you get to ask one guard one question, not knowing which guard is lying. Then, the question you should ask is "What would the other guard say is the winning door?" and pick the opposite of whatever was responded.
So instead of somehow asking "Which door is the winner?", you ask "Which door do you think everyone else thinks is the winner?", in order to bypass liars entirely.
reply
t's awesome that you're working on this, it's definitely a hard problem to solve but one that would give great unique value to users. Feel free to bounce ideas with me, don't worry about being pedantic or anything I love it!
Haha, did I just find my first test subject ? 👀
The first release will be on a custom signet. So you'd have infinite sats to trade with.
So instead of somehow asking "Which door is the winner?", you ask "Which door do you think everyone else thinks is the winner?", in order to bypass liars entirely.
I see, I think you're also describing the game theory behind bitcoin mining.
Miners constantly ask themselves: On which chain does the majority mine?
This is what keeps them honest. If they pick the wrong chain which is equivalent to lying in your case, they lose sats.
In mining, the answer is: the chain with the most proof of work since that chain will outgrow any other chain.
Game theory is pretty cool
reply
Game theory is pretty cool
For sure one of my top 3 favorite theorys :D
reply
What are your other top 3 theories?
reply
Hahah i thought you'd never ask.. Definitely Evolution ("selfish" genes expressing traits which compete in reality => traits adapting to environments) and Relativity ("things" tell "space" how to curve; "space" tells "things" how to move)! What about you
reply
Also, I think you are replacing one problem (oracle problem) with another problem (sybil resistance). You would need to KYC your users so they can't just create more votes out of thin air and create a lot of votes for every vote they didn't pick.