0 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Aug 2023 \ parent \ on: BRICS+: The Big Shft Is Coming bitcoin
The little trading block is growing faster than us/eu. And the russian economy changed since the Maidan plot. I think they will be well integrated even in the fast growing Indian economy. In absolute terms they surpassed the german GDP in Q2 for the first time
We can't just look at one growing figure and ignore others, both China and South Africa have massive youth unemployment problems, India and China are in a border dispute, South Africa and China have energy/grid issues, Russia got their war going, China is still on their Taiwan buzz, so who is going to protect the supply lines, and shipping? There are a lot of moving parts going on here
I think its a bit premature to judge it, I just think the media is blowing this thing up based on a few early stats and a few deals agreed
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I know quite well about the econ figures of the Eurozone. It's in sharp decline and the Euro is falling off a cliff in international usage. Just to give You my point of view. In the end anything is a derivative of cheap and constant access to energy.
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%100 on that I completely agree, the way I see it is the eurozone has had a long time to use cheap energy and build an industry on it to exploit that energy to at the levels they do, apart from China and maybe India a bit none of the BRICS nations are really manufacturing/enriching energy and commodities on a massive scale, they'll need to bring that Euro enrichment into their zones and that takes time
I do think the EU zone is shrinking based on many policy reasons but like you say cheap energy is the tide that lifts or sinks all ships.
I've seen some protectionist policies rolling out recently like South African oranges require additional operational costs before shipping to the EU so its competitive with Spanish exports
What's your take on EU with these higher interest rates combined with energy inflation, surely things are breaking if no easing is coming in
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The Fed is killing the negative yield spread between us and ger giv bonds. Inflation will be climbing like You said and this could initiate a capital movement that kills the money printer. In addition Niger is cutting France (and Germany) off a big amount of uranium. I think they soon will be in panic mode. Wait for the cold season.
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