Crypto doesn’t rest on weekends, but the U.S. equity traders are asleep. So what to make of the weekend trading activity?
“Simply put, the weekends have a drop-off in participation by smarter money,” Cantering Clark, a pseudonymous crypto trader and market analyst, said, referring to capital controlled by institutions and professional traders. He explained that there’s a high volume of activity by algorithmic trading bots and market makers (or liquidity providers) during weekends. “The market is less compelling to trade,” he said.
According to a "realized volatility" chart from Genesis Volatility, there's less volatility on weekends. Generally, traders seek volatility because it opens up opportunities for lucrative trades.
“Weekends in legacy markets such as forex were always known to be thinner. Knowing this, banks would push the market around to force movements. The same thing can be seen in crypto, so for the longest time the idea was that any weekend activity was ‘wrong’ and worth fading,” Clark said.
If bitcoin rises on a weekend, the expectation among traders is often that the market would move down over the week, Clark explained. “‘Never trust the weekend’ is a good thing to remind yourself.”