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Don't use a CEX. We have far better options for extreme privacy than just mixing now. And that's with a small data set and no circular economy. A large global data set and circular economy starts to leave institutions and governments as the parties being surveilled — perhaps by us.
I didnt touch KYC CEX since 2019 :)
But lets say someone were to buy/sell btc P2P via LN. Taxaman dislike "cash deals" and totality of those trades might be bg enough to grab someone for undeclared cap gains
Not possible with a large global data set on a global network. They'll spend more money doing the grabbing than they collect in taxes. A circular economy makes it harder. We already have multiple DEX's on LN, Robosats being the one I use most often. And the LN doesn't even have Taproot channels, splicing, or a self-validating wallet standard. I don't see your concerns playing out directionally. That's the beauty of FOSS and having a base layer designed with the right incentives and principles.
Onchain privacy is so sensitive, Its safer to assume even mixing doesnt hide you fully. Or if someone really wants to track you.