Short answer: I like CTV, don't like Speedy Trial, and it feels 6-12 months too early for an upgrade this powerful. I suspect Jeremy knows this isn't the right time and is just trying to force people to take the time to learn about CTV. I also have some concerns around the downstream effects of covenants, e.g. wallet support. I'm a bit concerned it will be harder to build wallets that are CTV aware so we'll see fewer wallets competing. There are likely other externalities and that's why I'd like to let CTV marinate a bit longer; it's also why its kind of great Jeremy is pushing the issue now - it felt like it hadn't even started marinating until now.

That said, I still haven't done a deep dive of CTV (deep enough to consider tradeoffs) and I don't feel like I have great intuition when in comes to base layer txs. I vaguely understand CTV and Sapio after reading the BIP and seeing all the Sapio presentations. I think its awesome how powerful it has the potential to be while being so simple, but that power is kind of scary tbh.

I personally feel more comfortable with APO being the next upgrade, perhaps partly biased by me having studied it earlier and hating the penalty mechanism in Lightning.