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Just came across this randomly, pretty interesting, the 2nd link shows how closely the odds track the actual outcome
I buy into a lot of the arguments regarding predictions markets, but haven't taken the time to better understand the proposed BIPs. I generally oppose BIPs, and wish they would find a way to implement drivechains without a fork, but it seems that "hash escrow" (whatever that means) is pivotal to his proposal and that requires a soft fork.
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