101 sats \ 1 reply \ @shyfire 22 Apr 2022 \ on: Post-2140 Mining Incentives bitcoin
Hmm, not sure I agree with your first point. There is a timeline where Bitcoin adoption is only marginal AND it's still around 100+ years. In this scenario mempool is not sufficiently congested and a 51% attack becomes trivial. There are multiple possible scenarios in this timeline, but for example there could be widespread regulation that prevents using Bitcoin as money, for example. So only authorized entities could buy and sell and that's all you could do with it. However I'm doing my absolute best to minimize the probably of this outcome and it's a worst case of sorts.
Some more comments around this you might find useful: #18569
That was a great thread, thanks!
I think that the opponents of Bitcoin are definitely trying to make it a zombified, neutered version of itself.
I'm sure we're past the point of most western nations outlawing it barring some extreme circumstances. Too many people have their bread and butter in Bitcoin. The crypto industry utterly depends on Bitcoin. However, a viable attack vector would be to regulate it into irrelevance and unprofitability. Once that happens, you're right that a 51% attack can become a very real concern.
A couple things need to happen in order to neutralize this attack vector.
One has to do with point #4 in my post. If mining can manage to become a staple in the energy sector, there can be enough mining in a low fee environment to prevent any serious 51% attacks. Governments would also become incentivized to protect Bitcoin because protecting Bitcoin protects the energy sector, and by extension the economy. Then again, regulators can always try to stop miners from collaborating with energy producers. This can happen even if the benefits of mining are clear and evident. There's a lot of moving pieces and incentives to this.
The other thing adherence to the cypherpunk ethos. Building more easy to use privacy tools, making sensible defaults, encouraging self-custody, and more will all be required. Even civil disobedience will be required from Bitcoiners at some point. A lot of this is social layer, messaging stuff which can be tricky. I think we're doing a decent job so far, but we need to up our game. Especially when it comes to privacy, anonymity, and self-custody.
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