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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @endothermicdev 8 Aug 2023 \ on: Will BTC have failed if it's not a widely accepted medium of exchange by 2033? bitcoin
No. There's no timeframe on which I will consider it failed based on this metric.
This is like saying most trips aren't taken by plane or helicopter, therefore flight is a failed technology. Nevermind the fact that it's revolutionized travel and communications and literally gives people the superpower to cross entire countries in comfort at hundreds of miles per hour.
Just like flight, bitcoin has had so many successes that I couldn't consider it a failure for an arbitrary metric it has yet to achieve. It created a sustaining, practical, decentralized network with distributed consensus despite the Byzantine general's dilemma - success! It monetized from zero to hundreds of billions of dollars - incredible! Bitcoin has established itself as a digital store of value independent of any central backer - wild!
I think bitcoin has staying power and so long as there are no good alternatives, simple game theory suggests it will continue to see additional adoption over time. But even if it completely stalls out in adoption and fails to gain the mantle of the global standard for exchange, that can't take away from the fact that it already:
- is an independent sound money
- is a lifeline to those in hyperinflating economies
- grants property rights even to those living under authoritarian rule
- offers an alternative to a failing economic paradigm
These are incredible achievements, revolutionary even. How could we consider the technology that brought them to be a failure?