0 sats \ 0 replies \ @llamabyte 8 Aug 2023 \ on: Will BTC have failed if it's not a widely accepted medium of exchange by 2033? bitcoin
No. It's already failed. No one wants THE ENTIRE WORLD to know the same address/account they sent a donation to the "girl scouts" is also the one they used to buy their "big tit grannies" collection with. It's hard to use, and harder to use privately
This is the way non-technical people would use it, all the evidence and history proves that. Normies want KYC'd, easy onboarding cheap fees with refunds/accountability, with privacy that can be enforced by a central authority who can be sued for damages in case their porn habits are leaked.
Another thing is, bitcoin has already failed in being something a state accepts as a tax payment (Outside el salvadore and Japan i think). It's like the biggest mafia in the world not accepting gold for their "safety" donation but accepting the indentured slavery of your children instead. The argument that all the governments of the world will have to fail and force bitcoin adoption is... wishing for tragedy.
That's ok for bitcoin tough, Bitcoin can be a store of value (more precisely a store of a unit of account Since even if it goes to 0 you still claim x.yy BTC), immutable,deflationary, all the other good stuff while another solution does the actual fungible untraceable stuff, and another does the tax stuff.
What bitcoin does is give us an option that did not exist before, beyond the standard manipulation abilities of the state. They can manipulate gold, silver, fiat, oil futures.
Bitcoin is pure demand signal, for now, even with washtrading, (that is still demand) contributing to the signal with no one able to increase or decrease supply at will.
This means mass adoption could never happen, inflation could stay the same and never hyper inflate, and bitcoin would still go way up in value and be around, the way gold and platinum are not "Mass adopted."