He's a fiction author, skilled at building suspence in a spy/high finance setting

He sort of exagerates things sometimes.

He's smart. He is also not dumb.

These are things we know, take from that what you will.

He was incog for a month and no one knew he was out of jail.

He could be getting his ass whipped by oakleaves in a friendly bellarussian sauna for a we know.