"All models are wrong, some are useful".

I quote this from @Undisciplined as this is something engineers must hold in their minds during their profession.

PlanB mentions that in this model it is assumed that scarcity drives value. And that scarcity is modelled via SF = stock / flow

I personally believe this model has not yet proven wrong and should be evaluated when the external factors influencing the price are dormant, for example, I think some blocks before each halving (unless something extraordinary happened like the COVID shock). I have personally taken a few datapoints (in the s2f vs. market cap space) before each halving and fitted a logarithmic expression and the fit so far was quite good. i can give more info if anyone interested.

If this expression holds by halving 2024 we should be at approx. 120k USD per bitcoin. Looking at the spiral charts from the twitter user @therationalroot this is not too crazy, since the spiral has never broken and we're heading to the next market cap ring (or in price 100k USD per bitcoin). I would also not be surprised if we're even at half of that by halving affected by the diminished ATH from the previous cycle due to all the shinanigans with paper bitcoins... who knows, no one can predict the future.

At the same time, the on-chain data analytics suggest that bitcoin on exchanges is drying up, while at the same time BlackRock and others are adding to potential future demand if the spot ETF's are approved.. both of which support a tendency towards a potential higher price due to increase in demand while decreasing supply.

I don't know and honestly I don't want to rely on price models for my individual life plan because at the end they are models, but I just want to say many people trash about this one being useless while I think the model still has not been proven wrong and in my opinion this model does not take into account hype at different periods (for that you need to add some statistics from previous cycles to the base case model).

PS: At the end, price is driven by supply and demand forces, and those can be modelled to some extent, since they are dependent on user adoption (sometimes unpredictable) due to acknowledgment of the use case for example from the demand side and also external factors (sometimes unpredictable) on the supply side.