You know, we could. The way the pool works is everyone pays the ante before week 1. Then each week you pick a winner from all the matchups. Straight. No point spread. You can only pick each team once during the season. If you lose, you're on probation. That week you pick with the spread. I think probation lasts 3 weeks. If you lose again, you're out.
Isn't it harder to pick a spread than a straight winner? Probation sounds harsh in that system.
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Yes it is. That's the point. You're punished for losing but you still have a chance of recovering.
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I asked a friend to send me all the rules. We don't need to follow this survivor format. I know the guy has been running it for 30 years so he probably has the math and incentives figured out. I misspoke. Probation is even tougher. 6 weeks! We probably shouldn't even do it unless there's enough interest to make it fun.
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Yes, let's do it
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The only issue is lightning escrow. Who holds the sats? We need some LN smarties to help us out. I think there was a recent post about LN and escrow/prediction markets? Is anyone knowledgeable about that stuff? I'm not.
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@ekzyis is working on his prediction market site so we can bet on the 100k bitcoin price date.
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the sports betting part is what @kr mentioned in a previous post: #212283
I'll try to come up with a very simple solution first (only for the 100k bitcoin price bet) and then see how I can evolve the website for more uses cases.
It won't be a real prediction market for a long time probably. More just a simple betting site to get something going.
Also, don't get your hopes up high for anything sophisticated, lol. For example, I intend to just use a simple custodial model for escrow. I'll mention something like this in the FAQ:
Q: Why should I trust you? A: You shouldn't. Only deposit what you can afford to lose.
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Excellent! I say we just trust @ekzyis as our escrow agent.
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If not we will work something out.
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Why not use super test net bitpac?
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I think https://bitpac.org/ won't work with small payments like 100 sats since it's onchain only. Is that correct @super_testnet?
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