Charlie Munger has a mental model called inversion.
The basic premise is instead of focusing on how to succeed, you should focus on avoiding stupid mistakes.
This is powerful as our brains are tuned for loss aversion and spotting danger. Much more than we are at seeing opportunity.
What does this look like in practice?
Let's ask the simple question above and list some reasons.
How could Bitcoin fail?
- Assuming it will inevitably win
- Misunderstanding people's real pain points
- Underestimating a Governments ability to adapt
- Not educating the masses at scale
- Lack of developer adoption to create proper tooling
- People have a bad experience and write it off as unneeded This is just a few that come to my mind right now.
If you invert these, you get a decent plan of actionable things to increase Bitcoin's chances of winning.
Ways to make Bitcoin win? (Inverted)
- Assume it will fail without consistent effort on all fronts as a global community
- Empathize will peoples everyday use of money
- Assume fiat will get better and innovate accordingly
- Educate everyone you interact
- Build on Bitcoin and fund developers/projects
- Create world-class tools for using BTC and Bitcoin.
- Create great experiences powered by Bitcoin
Use this framework and drop some other ways you think Bitcoin could fail (and then invert it)