They won't hard fork it- hard forks have been attempted and failed (measuring by hashrate), I think they want to make money on fees and also know that the USA is incentivized to hold BTC for strategic geopolitical reasons.
As for the tagging holders as terrorists they could try, the game theory in play here is that with your corn you can move to more favorable countries (long before it gets nasty).
But can the idea of distinguishing between tainted and clean coins even work in the long run? Coins go through LN, CEXes and whatnot. Eventually most UTXOs will have a history of coinjoins behind them.
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Globally it won't.
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